Macro Data Better than Expected

Posted by Josep Duran on Jul 7, 2020 9:08:54 AM

During June we have witnessed the recovery of macroeconomic data. Despite the fact that, in many cases, they are still contractive at an absolute level, they are showing significant improvements compared to their previous figures. Below, we can see a table with some of the economic indicators published in the US referring to business activity, unemployment and consumption.

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Analysts Are Too Opimistic

Posted by Josep Duran on Jul 1, 2020 11:53:56 AM

No one has a crystal ball to predict the future. Neither do financial analysts. Many times, when we talk about one-year EPS predictions, we assume them as valid, without questioning whether these, historically, have been correct.

This problem is shown in the following graph, where we can see the difference between the Earnings Per Share (EPS) predictions for the following year, made one year before, and the actual EPS when published.

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Topics: Renta Variable

The PE Ratio Trap

Posted by Josep Duran on Jun 25, 2020 5:47:17 PM

The PE Ratio (Price to Earnings Ratio) is one of the most common when trying to determine if the stock market is expensive or cheap. However, it can give us the wrong signals if we do not understand it well.

A little bit of history

As we can see, the value of the PE Ratio ratio has changed over time. The price of companies with respect to their profits is not always the same. That is because the market prices business profits based on expectations, which sometimes are not well set.

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Topics: Renta Variable

Two Different Causes for Two Different Crisis

Posted by Josep Duran on Jun 18, 2020 10:14:45 AM

Today, the stock market is discounting the so-called "V-shaped recovery": the economy undergoes a sharp contraction for one or two quarters, but quickly manages to recover and go back to the starting point.

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Topics: Recesión

Money flows to High Yield

Posted by Josep Duran on Jun 10, 2020 10:54:27 AM

During May, we have seen a strong inflow of money in the American High Yield sector, accounting for 19.6 billions of €.

Nevertheless, we also experienced another 19 billion € inflow during April, so this is not new.

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Topics: Estados Unidos, Renta Fija

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