--- title: Are we too optimistic? description: Good macro data have set the tone for 1Q 2021, with rises in world stock markets. Once these good expectations have been put in price, what we observe is that the returns after six months are not as good as one expects. image: https://blog.anchoreafi.com/hubfs/image-png-Apr-12-2021-09-48-22-76-AM.png --- ![](https://blog.anchoreafi.com/hubfs/image-png-Apr-12-2021-09-48-22-76-AM.png) # Are we too optimistic? Published by [ Josep Duran ](https://blog.anchoreafi.com/en/author/josep-duran) on Apr 13, 2021 10:00:00 AM Macroeconomic indicators are overflowing with optimism rarely seen. Especially in the United States, where the recovery is more pronounced, among other things because the vaccination rate is higher. In the US, the Manufacturing PMI stands at 64.7. What has happened when there has been unleashed macroeconomic optimism? Although it has occurred a few times in history, the data show us a certain trend, although it is not very strong. On average, the S&P 500 is down -3.1% at 6 months when the Manufacturing PMI is at 60 or higher. However, the relationship is not strong enough to conclude that there is a clear consequence. ![](https://blog.anchoreafi.com/hubfs/image-png-Apr-12-2021-09-48-22-76-AM.png) ![](https://blog.anchoreafi.com/hubfs/image-png-Apr-12-2021-09-44-22-21-AM.png) *Fuente: Refinitiv Datastream. Datos desde 1965. Elaboración propia Anchor Capital Advisors.* What we can observe is that more than 60% of the returns are negative, and the negative returns are more pronounced on average (-7.7%) than the positive ones (+ 4%). The conclusion we can draw from all this is caution. When we invest at record highs and in a positive macroeconomic enviroment, the odds (albeit weak) play against us. Probably, this is due to the fact that the stock market cycle is about 6 months ahead of the economic cycle. Markets always discount expectations, and sometimes expectations fail. Tags: [Economy](https://blog.anchoreafi.com/en/tag/economy), [Equity](https://blog.anchoreafi.com/en/tag/equity) [Back to Blog](https://blog.anchoreafi.com/en) - [Tweet](https://twitter.com/share) ## Related Articles ## [Earnings Season: better than expected](https://blog.anchoreafi.com/en/resultados-empresariales-mejor-de-lo-esperado?hsLang=en) The earnings season in the United States have left us some interesting conclusions.Although some... [Read More ](https://blog.anchoreafi.com/en/resultados-empresariales-mejor-de-lo-esperado?hsLang=en) ## [Earnings Season: Expected Disappointment?](https://blog.anchoreafi.com/en/resultados-empresariales-decepci%C3%B3n-esperada?hsLang=en) The already published results of Q1 2022 have not left anyone indifferent. Despite the fact that... [Read More ](https://blog.anchoreafi.com/en/resultados-empresariales-decepci%C3%B3n-esperada?hsLang=en) ## [Energy Sector: Still Room to Grow?](https://blog.anchoreafi.com/en/el-sorpasso-del-sector-energ%C3%A9tico?hsLang=en) The pandemic highlighted the importance of technology in our lives. Everyone agreed that technology... [Read More ](https://blog.anchoreafi.com/en/el-sorpasso-del-sector-energ%C3%A9tico?hsLang=en) **